CLARITY Act Faces Uncertainty as US Government Shutdown Odds Spike to 78%
Decentralized bettors on Polymarket are pricing in a 78% chance of a US government shutdown by January 31—a 50% surge in probability within 24 hours. The dramatic shift reflects Congress's deadlock over federal spending bills and escalating tensions ahead of critical funding negotiations.
Market participants are drawing parallels to the 43-day shutdown in late 2023, which delayed progress on the CLARITY Act—a landmark digital asset regulation bill now advancing through Congress. Political commentator Collin Rugg highlighted Senate Democrats' refusal to support appropriations bills containing DHS funding as a key catalyst for the heightened risk.
The standoff arrives during a pivotal moment for crypto legislation, with regulatory clarity hanging in the balance. Trading volumes on prediction markets suggest growing institutional concern about potential disruptions to financial markets and digital asset policymaking.
